Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 4.044170 4.733750 5.496336 6.400946 7.443478 8.605970 9.999177
2025-10-12 3.022080 3.961515 5.112191 6.619339 8.534861 10.881115 13.965169
2025-10-19 2.380969 3.430955 4.830794 6.819450 9.555352 13.167856 18.276533
2025-10-26 1.899718 2.971033 4.507187 6.845674 10.284822 15.119344 22.382110
2025-11-02 1.500392 2.526117 4.095973 6.637011 10.599978 16.483642 25.797523
2025-11-09 1.180234 2.127339 3.666412 6.301113 10.634403 17.391493 28.599754
2025-11-16 0.976723 1.873443 3.412025 6.182113 10.959717 18.741479 32.193159
2025-11-23 0.826111 1.679170 3.218569 6.122092 11.352622 20.217055 36.124055
2025-11-30 0.749775 1.605452 3.220767 6.396024 12.340248 22.771614 42.112573
2025-12-07 0.654048 1.474597 3.094006 6.409017 12.852032 24.547892 46.929709
2025-12-14 0.569419 1.349509 2.956455 6.376335 13.265213 26.178600 51.639814
2025-12-21 0.502145 1.248296 2.849363 6.384645 13.750355 27.980327 56.832729
2025-12-28 0.488703 1.268175 3.002987 6.961486 15.459535 32.320362 67.358713
2026-01-04 0.447261 1.215032 2.991464 7.188262 16.486434 35.457657 75.909191
2026-01-11 0.409490 1.163366 2.974853 7.401063 17.510363 38.698038 85.002925
2026-01-18 0.364919 1.085066 2.883080 7.428215 18.131161 41.173932 92.786125
2026-01-25 0.312792 0.975281 2.696404 7.202570 18.152332 42.384136 98.038472
2026-02-01 0.261936 0.857433 2.468548 6.839779 17.804386 42.750739 101.507263
2026-02-08 0.228837 0.783673 2.342084 6.711234 17.993935 44.320893 107.765047
2026-02-15 0.202683 0.725038 2.246055 6.646400 18.329208 46.252343 115.018807
2026-02-22 0.192377 0.714491 2.282518 6.942195 19.608983 50.506962 128.009091
2026-03-01 0.173778 0.672300 2.220448 6.956222 20.160865 53.082115 137.296420
2026-03-08 0.155860 0.628212 2.145052 6.920934 20.577369 55.369139 146.110234